Numismatic ATB 5oz Silver Coins
Hard to believe that these have not sold out! If the bullion coins were "all that and a bag of chips" it boggles the mind that these are still available.
I doubt that this series will be completed due to lack of interest and skyrocketing bullion prices. The CME today raised margins AGAIN for the third time is five days! By December they will require 100% cash payments for paper silver! The monkeys are pulling out ALL the stops to hold silver below $50. Check out a 7-10 day silver chart and you'll see what I mean. By the time the Mint finishes the series silver will be at $400 oz. $279 per coin will seem cheap at that time.
Bill
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Replies to This Discussion
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Permalink Reply by Louis on -
You are right, Bill. The feds and the banks do this every time the price gets very high in a short period. That's how they drove the Hunt brothers out of business-- by raising margin requirements repeatedly. But even the 3rd increase and the Bin Laden death have only knocked silver a few bucks. Buyers came right in when the price tanked to $42 last night. And now we are entering the debt increase period, which I think will knock the dollar down further and lift metals more.
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Permalink Reply by Indentured Servant on -
Gary, IMO, not that you asked for it, you'd be better off buying ASE's, rounds, bars or junk rather than these overpriced coins. Markup is nearly 20%. I can get junk silver locally for 1% above spot.
Louis, I agree that the efforts of the Evil Empire to knock down PM's had little effect. Every single EE raid has less of an effect for a shorter period of time than the last raid. Pretty soon they might actually figure out that their efforts are really doing us a favor in effect by putting silver on sale. I still hear chatter that they may knock silver back to $30 or even the high $20's. I'd love to buy silver that low again and I'll be doing so with both fists if it happens!
Bill
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Permalink Reply by Gary on -
Yeah...but i kinda like these big things and hoping they have some collector value and some silver value?? And the bullion versions treated me pretty well? So i guess i am playing with house money right now!!!
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Permalink Reply by Buffalo on -
I can always be wrong, but I just don't think they can knock silver down a whole lot for any length of time now. I try to keep up with things all the time, but I did a lot of extra research over this past weekend on gold, silver, currencies especially the euro versus the dollar, etc since I was looking at making a move today. The following is from some of what I looked at on silver, and I think the consumption versus supply trends are very significant. "Paper" silver is a different issue, but I think we are rapidly reaching the point physical shortages will be undeniable. One thing I saw after I put this together is another source saying total supply was almost 200 million ounces less than the number I quoted below and have seen elsewhere. If that is the case, physical shortages will be even more severe and immediate, and the shortfall from new production would be much greater than the 20%+ number at the end of the following. Anyways, just my 2¢:
The VM Group reported the total available worldwide silver supply for 2010 at 35,000 metric tonnes. This includes silver from recycling as well as all mining production (approx 29,000 tonnes), basically all known sources. They reported the 2010 silver consumption at 31,000 metric tonnes, indicating an oversupply of 4,000 metric tonnes. I have my doubts about those numbers just because I doubt that the VM Group has any way of knowing every silver transaction, and I think there could easily be 10% or more additional silver buying that is not reported. Also, even though they report this as an oversupply, actual new production was less than consumption by 2,000 metric tonnes.
Regardless, silver imports into China quadrupled in 2010, rising to 3,500 metric tonnes, and is up over 30% so far YTD in 2011. About 70% of China's imports have been for the industrial sector, but the investment side has increased sharply over the last few months. With all of that together I think we could easily see a 50% increase this year, putting China's imports at over 5,000 metric tonnes. Approx 5,200 metric tonnes in total, one year increase of 1,750 metric tonnes.
India imported 2,800 tonnes of silver in 2010, and is projected to import more than 5,000 tonnes this year, most of that investment buying by the 70% of India's 1.2 billion people living in rural areas. Approx increase of 2,200 metric tonnes.
So just these two countries should account for an increase in consumption of 3,900 metric tonnes, virtually the entire amount reported as an oversupply for 2010. This increase would also mean consumption would outpace new production by 20% (more than 125 million troy ounces) for 2011 and I think consumption elsewhere will increase as well. IMO, another strong indicator silver will go much higher this year. The only way to make up that 20% or more shortfall will be to buy back silver and "recycle" and I think the premiums to do so will skyrocket.
Edited to add I am also very surprised the 5 ouncers haven't sold out yet, and I think we will see silver $70+ this year.
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Permalink Reply by Clair Alan Hardesty on -
Well. my Hot Springs numismatic pond skimmer is shipping today (tracking number at mint but UPS has not seen the package yet) and it looks like the mint is upgrading to express shipping so it should arrive Monday. I will take some scans and photos and upload them once it arrives. They never said that they would upgrade shipping for free but it has a UPS tracking number so they must have. Since it is silver and under $300, I did not expect it to get the upgrade. I wonder how many paid the $12.95 to get expedited shipping (the mint will gladly take the money even if they would have done it for free and will not refund it).
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Permalink Reply by True Money on -
The question remains: Will these coins serve as a sufficient means of trade? Is this a coin that is easily-carried within pockets and can be easily traded for goods and services? NO! This is another tactic used by our dysfunctional and corrupt government to offer commodities in a form that makes them less likely to be used for business purposes. Watch out! These early-issue coins will prove to be flops by having the highest mintages. Eventually, many will be seeking these coins at absolutely 0 numismatic value just for bulk silver and melting purposes. This is why I am staying away!
-True Money!
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Permalink Reply by Buffalo on
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Mine still shows in process but no shipping info yet. The cancel box did go away a day or two ago so I think it will probably ship soon. Long term I'm still optimistic on silver, so I think they won't be a loser even just for bullion if it comes to that. I do think the much longer time to get to a sell-out than many expected will hurt demand for the remainder of the 2010 issues. The Hot Springs might not have been the most attractive design of the 2010's, but it was the first and I would have expected demand to get a boost compared to the other 2010 issues because of that.
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Permalink Reply by Indentured Servant on
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I don't necessarily buy your argument here regarding trade TM. The same reasoning would preclude the use of 5-10-50-100-1000 oz bars as well. If we have to use silver as money at some point the you may need several 100 or 1000oz bars to buy a car our house. I'm not sure about the low mintages argument either. All the SAC and Presidential dollars see very limited use while I read about warehouses containing billions of these coins. The mint will mint them as mandated. Whether they can sell them or not is another matter.
We do agree on the eventual numismatic value of these coins. I tend to believe that in a very high or hyper inflationary scenario, the numismatic value of most collectible coins will also be close to zero or zero due to decreased demand. As the eventual recovery takes hold, numismatic value will come back. If you are right that they will be sold for melt, then that can only help numismatic value in the long term. Always buy bullion for the wallet and numismatic for aesthetics.
Bill
True Money said:The question remains: Will these coins serve as a sufficient means of trade? Is this a coin that is easily-carried within pockets and can be easily traded for goods and services? NO! This is another tactic used by our dysfunctional and corrupt government to offer commodities in a form that makes them less likely to be used for business purposes. Watch out! These early-issue coins will prove to be flops by having the highest mintages. Eventually, many will be seeking these coins at absolutely 0 numismatic value just for bulk silver and melting purposes. This is why I am staying away!
-True Money!
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