Commodity crooks
Replies to This Discussion
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Permalink Reply by Steve W on -
Well, according to everyone's big hero Patrick Heller, it should not make any difference. According to him their is going to be a huge surge in prices by the end of July. Go out and buy 100 K of bullion and sell it on July 30th. Heller says you will get rich. You cannot miss, right?
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Permalink Reply by Lee Grant on -
I took the advice of an "expert" and lost half my money on platinum. His prediction was at the end of 2008 platinum would be at $2,400/oz.
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Permalink Reply by Steve W on
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Good point LG! Some of the other people on this site should read this and learn. Platinum was at bubble stage back then. These so called experts are usually people with something to sell. Having said that I do think that gold will move forward, but I do not have the certainty to "bet the farm"!
Lee Grant said:I took the advice of an "expert" and lost half my money on platinum. His prediction was at the end of 2008 platinum would be at $2,400/oz.
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Permalink Reply by Buffalo on -
It's important to realize a couple of things. First, the "experts" normally do have some type of bias. This bias can exist on either side of any issue, including investing in gold or other precious metals. Heller is consistently bullish. I have read others who have been just as consistently bearish regardless of the price increases we have seen, world events, economic uncertainties, sovereign debt, etc. A good question would be what are these folks selling? What was Bernanke selling when he said he was "puzzled" by gold's performance? People should read multiple sources from all sides of an issue,and evaluate what is said based on facts obtained or verified from independent sources.
Second, no one will be right every time. Give some thought to the "what if I'm wrong" scenario. If you are buying large amounts of physical gold or other PM's, maybe consider put options as a protection against the bottom falling out, maybe diversify into several different metals or other investments. People have unique situations so the best actions are not the same for everyone.
I also think gold will go higher and that we will see $1300+ per ounce in the next month or two.
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Permalink Reply by Lureuin on -
Bernanke was trying to sell the value of paper. At the time he made the comment, the US dollar was losing value against the Euro and gold was climbing.
Although I still have some of my money in the regular markets, I have come to the conclusion that it's all smoke and mirrors. The way the dollar can be down on Monday because "the fundamentals" are terrible, and then be the "safe haven" on Tuesday has taught me that it's all a shell game; and the only people really getting rich, are the rich. They move their money into what was down the day before, and the sheep follow; albeit to late to really profit. If the Euro zone sucks today, it should continue to suck for at least a month, but it doesn't seem to work that way.
I still believe that it's going to have to get much much worse before anything will ever be done to stop the money elite from using everyone, as well as many governments, to rape the working class. They convinced us all to get involved in the markets 25 years ago, and all that has happened is our hard earned money has gone up in smoke.
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Permalink Reply by Buffalo on
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Well said Lureuin. Speaking of "smoke and mirrors" and the Eurozone, I believe this is increasing pretty quickly with regard to Spain. The same pattern of partial admissions of the problems followed by denials is increasing, most recently with regard to the banking sector. Merkel said the rescue package is there if Spain needs it, but "we shouldn't talk this up". I believe it will turn in to the new Greece very soon. With a much larger economy, the effects will be greater. I think it was Moody's that just downgraded Greece 4 notches or so to junk status, citing concerns that they can't really implement the austerity measures they have agreed to. It is one thing for a government to say they will do something, it is another thing to actually be able to do it and hold a society together at the same time. This is a lesson that I believe will be learned multiple times in Europe and maybe here as well. I have little confidence in the stock markets and have completely pulled out of them for now. Too much risk in my opinion.
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Permalink Reply by Lee Grant on
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Whenever I need some advice that I value I listen to you guys - not the experts. You all are more reliable and don't have the biases and self interests of these so-called experts. Thanks to all you thoughtful and unbiased people on this site.
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Permalink Reply by Steve W on
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I am staying in the SM on a limited basis following the theory of diversification. My financial planner claims that we are in the midst of a 10 year "Bear Market". He does not see a recovery occurring for years. The fundamentals do not look too good. Gold has done well, but I still have my suspicions about a bubble. I will continue to buy on a limited basis. I am about done with rare coin investments for the foreseeable future.
I wonder if the American people are going to wake up concerning the need to shift away from the fossil fuel economy? The Gulf disaster must be seen as a wake up call, but I fear that most will just see it as a "Natural Disaster" resulting from lax management and loose regulation. Too many vested interests will spin it that way to avoid change! I see this as an event comparable to 911. I believe that a full scale movement away from fossil fuels is critical to future national security. It will not be easy, but it must be done.
Buffalo said:Well said Lureuin. Speaking of "smoke and mirrors" and the Eurozone, I believe this is increasing pretty quickly with regard to Spain. The same pattern of partial admissions of the problems followed by denials is increasing, most recently with regard to the banking sector. Merkel said the rescue package is there if Spain needs it, but "we shouldn't talk this up". I believe it will turn in to the new Greece very soon. With a much larger economy, the effects will be greater. I think it was Moody's that just downgraded Greece 4 notches or so to junk status, citing concerns that they can't really implement the austerity measures they have agreed to. It is one thing for a government to say they will do something, it is another thing to actually be able to do it and hold a society together at the same time. This is a lesson that I believe will be learned multiple times in Europe and maybe here as well. I have little confidence in the stock markets and have completely pulled out of them for now. Too much risk in my opinion.
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Permalink Reply by Buffalo on
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Steve, your financial planner has a lot of company in his views. Seth Klarman is not a household name, but his track record is hard to beat. He seldom makes public comments but he did in this recent article. He is just one of many saying fundamentally the same things. His comments about manipulation in the markets actually have a lot in common with what Lureuin said about the smoke and mirrors. I made the mistakes of underestimating market risk in late 2008 and early 2009, relying too much on "expert" opinions without doing enough research of my own, and to be honest allowing greed to outweigh common sense. It was an expensive lesson equivalent to at least a few pounds of gold and I don't intend to make those same mistakes again.
I do not currently see a bubble in gold because I don't think enough people are in it yet, although I do think we are moving in that direction. Most of the recent price increases have been from investment by people looking to avoid risk elsewhere. The underlying problems which have caused this have not been resolved, and actually could very well become worse. I believe volatility in the price of gold will increase with larger and more rapid swings as the price goes higher, but I still think the overall trend will be up as long as uncertainty remains high.
Hillary Clinton recently called the national debt a matter of national security. Hopefully the powers that be will place more importance on the Gulf oil spill than they did on her words. I live within a mile of the Gulf, tar balls and oil have already hit local beaches, so it is an issue close to home for me and I am far from impressed with the response of BP or the government.
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Permalink Reply by True Money on -
It is extremely sad when you have reporters like Anderson Cooper (heir to a portion of the Vanderbilt fortune) ridiculing BP for not doing their jobs. He is pissed, just like all of us. How can a company, with so much to lose, allow its employees to work at this job during normal working hours and allow them to stop and go home every night and weekend? They should have different shifts working 24 hours around the clock seven days a week to get this fixed and cleaned up. BP is finished in the United States. This should also send a strong message to all other companies driven by greed, especially those operating with uneducated union workforces that cannot handle such necessary challenges.
Buffalo, it is terribly distasteful to hear that these so-called experts took you for a ride. This is another reason why investors like us must take investment decisions into our own hands and act on educated personal intuition. These so-called market experts rely on previous history of stocks in determining what to buy, sell, or hold. We need to all make the best educated investment decisions for ourselves. Don't put your money in the hands of strangers. It is the tangible aspect of gold that makes it so attractive. While all of those stocks never increase in value with an ever-inflating dollar and others simply dissolve away, gold will always be there in your possession.
Some people on here believe I am giving too much credit to Patrick Heller. At least he is making an effort to put credible facts out there that we all need to know.
-True Money!
Buffalo said:Steve, your financial planner has a lot of company in his views. Seth Klarman is not a household name, but his track record is hard to beat. He seldom makes public comments but he did in this recent article. He is just one of many saying fundamentally the same things. His comments about manipulation in the markets actually have a lot in common with what Lureuin said about the smoke and mirrors. I made the mistakes of underestimating market risk in late 2008 and early 2009, relying too much on "expert" opinions without doing enough research of my own, and to be honest allowing greed to outweigh common sense. It was an expensive lesson equivalent to at least a few pounds of gold and I don't intend to make those same mistakes again.
I do not currently see a bubble in gold because I don't think enough people are in it yet, although I do think we are moving in that direction. Most of the recent price increases have been from investment by people looking to avoid risk elsewhere. The underlying problems which have caused this have not been resolved, and actually could very well become worse. I believe volatility in the price of gold will increase with larger and more rapid swings as the price goes higher, but I still think the overall trend will be up as long as uncertainty remains high.
Hillary Clinton recently called the national debt a matter of national security. Hopefully the powers that be will place more importance on the Gulf oil spill than they did on her words. I live within a mile of the Gulf, tar balls and oil have already hit local beaches, so it is an issue close to home for me and I am far from impressed with the response of BP or the government.
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Permalink Reply by Buffalo on
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TM,
I think I must have given the wrong impression regarding my stock market experience that I mentioned. I was the one making the decisions so the fault is mine. I can't say anyone took me for a ride. Honestly, I think I subconsciously chose to listen to the people who were saying what I wanted to hear. This is a big part of the reason I preach so much nowadays that people should read opinions on all sides of an issue with an open mind. There is little benefit in reading only what you already believe. Also to do independent research to be able to accurately evaluate what is said, and be sure to give enough thought to the "what if" risks that are involved. One last point- things change and sometimes in unexpected ways. I had done well for several years prior to the experience I mentioned in late '08-early '09. Don't get complacent and ever think you can't be wrong.
I don't know what the answer to the oil spill is. It seems pretty apparent it will be wtih us for months and years. The last estimates from a few days ago mean the leak was as much as approximately equal to the Exxon Valdez spill every 6 days. Given this estimate has been repeatedly revised upwards who knows if even the current one is accurate.
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Permalink Reply by george palmer on
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I think that people read and here what they like and if i could look in the future and told people that gold or silver would be at $$$$$ and you better get or you would be sorry people would say i am nuts predictions is just like that i think we like these things because we are on this site so we want to here what we love is going up how high will it go before you sell and would you sell ever thing you have all in or all out but nice discussion but if you can set here and read all things that our coin guys our saying you have to love the P.M.
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